Net Zero - a Realistic Goal or a Pipe Dream?

With the most recent 2023 progress report warning that “the world is not on track to meet the long-term goals of the Paris Agreement”, the question of whether the net zero 2050 target is a realistic goal or a pipe dream is critical.

Almost a decade ago now, world leaders agreed to tackle climate change head-on when they signed the Paris Agreement, committing to reduce carbon emissions by 45% by 2030 and reach net zero by 2050. This breakthrough agreement focuses on limiting global temperatures to no more than 1,5°C above pre-industrial levels, critical to preventing the catastrophic environmental consequences of allowing the temperature to continue rising at its current rate.

South Africa was amongst the countries to sign the Paris Agreement, a requirement of which is that a national climate action plan called a National Determined Contribution (NDC) is submitted every five years. In South Africa’s most recent NDC, submitted in September 2021, it has again committed to the goal of reaching net zero emissions by 2050, a huge task considering that about 80% of the country’s electricity relies on coal, and it is one of the top five coal exporters in the world.

According to Statista’s ‘South Africa’s Coal Mining Employment 2011 – 2022 Survey’ published in 2024, the coal mining industry contributes R493,8 billion and employs 475 561 people as of 2022.

Considering this and the most recent 2023 progress report warning that “the world is not on track to meet the long-term goals of the Paris Agreement”, the question of whether the net zero 2050 target is a realistic goal or a pipe dream is key.

“It’s clear that most countries are not doing enough to limit global warming and that their NDCs are not aggressive enough to make the Paris Agreement goal feasible,” says Karel Cornelissen, NOA Co-Founder and CEO. “It becomes a far more complex analysis when you consider elements that will be critical in meeting these ambitious goals, such as where the significant capital investment it requires comes from, how to ensure a just energy transition to protect the employment market and ensure a net positive impact on society.”

Perhaps a more important question to ask is, what can we do to be part of the solution? “This is what NOA is focused on,” says Karel Cornelissen. “The quest for net zero requires a collective effort, where government, business, investors and communities collaborate to realise this future. In South Africa, critical legislative steps such as the Electricity Regulation Amendment Act, and the Climate Change Bill have been important milestones to create the right environment for a Just Transition.”

With an R3,2 billion investment from Old Mutual’s African Infrastructure Investment Managers (AIIM), and with access to the existing Eskom grid via Eskom’s Virtual Wheeling Platform (VWP), NOA’s strategy to develop, finance, and operationalise 5 GW of renewable energy assets by 2028 will make a significant contribution to the country’s need for over 150 GW of renewable energy by 2050.Resources

Paris Agreement

South Africa Coal Mining Employment

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